Sunday, March 20, 2016

Trump is in deep trouble

As of this morning delegate allocation is
Trump                    678
Cruz                        423

Rubio                      164
Kasich                    143
Other                        21

Remaining        1,043

Trump will need 559 more delegates, or 53.6% of the remaining available.  Cruz will need 814 more delegates or 78% of the remaining available.  Assuming that Rubio releases his delegates to Kasich, Kasich will need 930 more delegates or 89.2% of the remaining available.  In a three way race, none of these seem probable.

The simplistic reporting done by much of the mainstream media is leading some to the impression that Trump will probably reach the 1,237 needed to lock up the nomination in the first ballot.  However, despite 'leading' in Arizona, Pennsylvania and California, he will likely lose all three.

Arizona and Utah will hold their primaries on March 22.  The recent polls for Arizona average the following:
Trump               34.0%
Cruz                   21.0 %
Kasich               12.5%
Undecided       32.5%

Trump is a 'love him or hate him' candidate.  One would assume that very few people who are still undecided are likely to break for him.  Most of those undecided were probably unsure between Kasich and Rubio and now that Rubio is out, will either vote for Kasich or, despite being 'likely voters', stay home.

Cruz may get a substantial number from people who are waiting to decide which candidate is likely to beat Trump.  So, Cruz is the likely winner.  He is also the presumptive winner in Utah, which means the delegate count will be close after March 22 between Cruz and Trump.

Wisconsin holds its primary on April 5.  There have been no recent polls and, as such, is a critical unknown in the race for 1,237 delegates.

New York holds its primary on April 19 and Trump is the presumptive winner.  On April 26 Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware, Maryland and Pennsylvania hold their primaries.  There have been no recent polls in Connecticut, Rhode Island or Delaware, but one would assume strength for Trump.  

Maryland has had one recent poll
Trump            34%
Cruz                 25%

Kasich             18%
Rubio              14%
Undecided      9%

With Rubio out, this is too close to call between the three.

Pennsylvania has had two recent polls with the average as follows:

Trump          28.5%
Rubio            18.5%
Cruz               16.5%
Kasich           14.0%
Undecided   22.5%

Rubio/Kasich totals are in the lead and with the high undecided, one would expect a Kasich win.

Indiana has its primary on May 3 and there has been virtually no recent polling.  One would expect, based upon the polls in similar states that this will be a contest between Cruz and Kasich.

Nebraska and West Virginia have their primaries on May 10.

Nebraska is polling as follows
Trump               31.3%
Cruz                    19.3%
Rubio                 17.4Trump%
Kasich               10.1%
Undecided       21.9%

If the undecided break toward Rubio/Kasich, they would be projected to win the state.  However, Cruz has been winning neighboring states and that is a clear possibility.  Either way, Cruz and Kasich will average 34.4% if Trump gets no significant undecided, and, therefore, one of them should win.

In West Virginia, Trump is getting 44.0% of the vote and should take the state.

Oregon holds its primary on May 17.  There have been no recent polls

Washington hold its primary on May 24.  There have been no recent polls.

June 7 is the critical and last primaries, including California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota.  Only California has been recently polled.  However, one would expect New Jersey to go to Trump and Montana, New Mexico and South Dakota to go to Cruz.  In California
Trump             31.5%
Cruz                 21.0%
Kasich             17.5%
Rubio              14.0%
Undecided    16.0%

While Trump currently leads, it seems unlikely that the Rubio vote or the undecided are likely to go to him and Kasich actually looks like he is in the best position.

While the polls still have a significant number of poorly polled states and several of the critical states have very large percent undecideds, the sum total does not suggest that Trump will reach 1,237 on June 7.  Also, in the absence of a Cruz/Kasich consolidated ticket, which probably could get a first ballot nomination, it does not appear that the GOP can avoid a contested convention.

As ably described in this New York Times article and argued by Hugh Hewitt, there is a separate battle to select the individuals who will become the delegates who will be bound on the first ballot by their state primaries, but will usually become free to vote as they choose on the second and subsequent ballots. Trump's problem is that this process takes place at the State convention and long time party faithful delegates select party faithful National delegates.

While, generally, Trump's delegates will be bound to him for one vote but are not likely to have significant loyalty to him in subsequent ballots.  In other words, once the first ballot selects no winner, Trump will be hard pressed to keep the delegates that he has.  They will tend to flood to Cruz and, if he is still a candidate, Kasich.

There are two ways that candidates and party leadership can influence the voting in subsequent ballots. They can talk a candidate into withdrawing. Unlike the 1952 Democratic convention, they only need to talk one into withdrawing, since it then is a two man race and someone will have the majority of delegates. That definitely won't be Trump and the GOP leadership has more leverage on Cruz. So that is a possibility.

However, Cruz will likely wait until a ballot with some released delegates to see where they go. The RNC will likely encourage a migration of votes to Kasich because, at least at present, he is polling the best against Clinton.  Electability matters to party activists and that is where most will likely to go. However, the Tea Party has support and some will go to Cruz. Since Cruz will likely have more delegates than Kasich, it is possible that those fleeing Trump will break to Cruz enough for him to go over 1,237. However, that is not the way to bet.
Once all delegates are released and have settled on a candidate, the convention will be in a true deadlock. The only thing to do is to try to convince one of the candidates to withdraw. And Trump doesn't win because, if Cruz withdraws, Kasich wins. If Kasich withdraws, Cruz wins. Trump has no scenario in which he gets the majority of the delegates.


Friday, March 4, 2016

Why you should administer/curate a Polymathica Group

Suppose you made strawberry shampoo. Your friends and acquantances tell you that it is very good strawberry shampoo. So you open up a bath store, but you only carry your strawberry shampoo. Are you likely to be successful? Of course not. You are not getting at the 99.999% of the potential customers who don't live near the store.Also, many people will come into the store and say, 'Well, your strawberry shampoo looks really good, but I 'm really looking for coconut shampoo or a bath towel.' In other words, you are paying for a lot of traffic that just isn't interested in the one thing you are selling. 

So, despite being a very good strawberry shampoo, your enterprise fails.Yet, that is precisely what people do when they start a blog. Like the strawberry shampoo needed other products to sell to the traffic it generated, your blog needs precisely the same thing. is the beginning of the equivalent of a national chain of bath shops within which to sell your strawberry shampoo, if your version of strawberry shampoo is an intellectually sophistiated blog, vlog, video, book, etc.

As the saying goes, united we stand, divided we fall. Your 'strawberry shampoo' might be very good; it is just your marketing that is bad. Polymathica will be scouring the world for Polymathicans. There are an estimated 6,000,000 of them. We will be generating this niche market for the benefit of all those who want to provide it with products, services and content. As a Member of The Polymathic Institute and its Enterprise Network, you will do your part, but, really, it won't be that much effort. 

You will join, set up a group/forum related to the subject of your blog, vlog, etc. and then ask your contacts to join. To this point, you are a bath shop selling just strawberry shampoo. But there will be at least 200 such groups and they will be doing the same thing. Their contacts will be available to you as potential group members and readers. This should increase your group by at least ten times the number that you, personally bring it. Also, with a large number of registrants and group members, we will be able to create a broad advertising program with the revenue thus generated used to build the size of Polymathica. We should reach full size in under three years.

If you are the sort of person who can reasonably curate, administer, write, etc. for the Polymathican audience, this is an opportunity to create an Information Age income with part-time effort. Just join Polymathica, start a group and get going.